Succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader Between War and the Reshaping of Power

Questions are mounting over the future of Iran’s political leadership amid the ongoing military escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. The debate has intensified following media reports suggesting that a successor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic may soon be chosen, particularly after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in recent U.S.–Israeli strikes.

Some reports indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, is among the leading candidates to assume the position, although no official announcement has yet been issued by Iran’s constitutional institutions regarding the final decision. The issue carries significant weight in the context of the ongoing war, as the selection of a new Supreme Leader could play a decisive role in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies in the coming period.

Succession in the Midst of War

The question of leadership transition in Iran arises at an exceptional moment, as the country faces unprecedented military and political pressure. The U.S.–Israeli aerial campaign has targeted key elements of Iran’s security and military infrastructure, including command centers and strategic facilities.

Under such circumstances, the selection of a Supreme Leader extends beyond a constitutional procedure and becomes closely tied to the broader dynamics of the ongoing conflict and the future of Iran’s political system.

Statements from U.S. and Israeli officials have suggested that one of the strategic objectives of the war is to bring about regime change in Iran, further increasing the sensitivity and complexity of the succession process.

The Constitutional Mechanism for Selecting a Supreme Leader

According to Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, a religious–political body composed of 88 clerics who are elected after undergoing a strict vetting process conducted by the Guardian Council.

The Guardian Council is one of the most influential institutions in Iran’s political system. It reviews legislation, supervises elections, and approves candidates for public office, including those running for the Assembly of Experts.

Given the conservative composition of these institutions, the Assembly is expected to favor a successor who can ensure continuity of the Islamic Republic’s political framework while demonstrating the ability to confront internal and external challenges.

Potential Candidates

At present, no candidate appears to command unanimous support within Iran’s political establishment. Former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had long been considered one of the most prominent potential successors, but his death in a helicopter crash in 2024 ended that possibility.

Among the names currently circulating in political discussions are:

• Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader
• Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ruhollah Khomeini
• Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, and director of Iran’s Islamic seminaries

Some reports suggest that the Assembly of Experts may have reached a preliminary consensus on a successor, although a formal announcement could be delayed due to the current security conditions associated with the war.

Mojtaba Khamenei: A Controversial Figure

Mojtaba Khamenei is widely regarded as one of the most enigmatic figures within Iran’s power structure. Despite being among the closest individuals to the late Supreme Leader, he has maintained a relatively limited public profile and has not held any official governmental position.

Nevertheless, speculation about his influence within the political system has circulated for years, particularly due to his perceived connections with figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and conservative political networks.

Born in 1969 in the city of Mashhad, Mojtaba grew up in a religious and political environment shaped by the Islamic Revolution of 1979. He later pursued religious studies in the city of Qom, one of the most prominent centers of Shiite scholarship.

He is also often described as belonging to the “war generation,” having reportedly served briefly during the Iran–Iraq War as part of the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force affiliated with the IRGC.

Despite this background, his religious credentials remain a subject of debate within Iran’s clerical establishment, as he is not widely regarded as a senior religious authority. This could present a potential obstacle to his appointment as Supreme Leader.

Moreover, the prospect of him assuming the position has sparked debate both inside and outside Iran, since the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic emphasize the selection of the Supreme Leader based on religious and political qualifications rather than hereditary succession.

The Transitional Leadership Structure

In the absence of an official announcement regarding the new Supreme Leader, reports indicate that a temporary leadership council has been formed to manage the affairs of the state.

The council reportedly includes:

• Alireza Arafi
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
• Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i

This interim body is expected to oversee key state decisions until a final determination is made regarding the country’s supreme leadership.

The Role of the Revolutionary Guard

At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as a central actor in directing Iran’s military response to the ongoing conflict.

Although the Iranian president formally chairs the National Defense Council, many analysts believe that the IRGC holds substantial influence over military decision-making during the current crisis.

This influence has been reflected in a series of strategic moves attributed to Iran, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and missile and drone attacks across the region.

Regional Implications

Iranian strikes on Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases—including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—have further complicated the regional landscape.

In recent years, Iran had sought to improve its relations with several Arab states, including the restoration of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in 2023. However, the current escalation may prompt these countries to reassess their positions, particularly if hostilities continue or expand.

The Future of Iran’s Political System

Some assessments suggest that Iran’s leadership is betting on its ability to withstand the ongoing airstrikes and prolong the conflict. According to these analyses, Tehran may hope that extending the war could erode political support for the conflict within the United States.

In this context, the selection of a new Supreme Leader could become a critical factor in shaping Iran’s policy direction during the coming phase, particularly regarding the management of the war and responses to international pressure.

Conclusion

The succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader represents one of the most consequential political developments in the current moment, especially given the ongoing war and rapidly shifting regional dynamics.

While several names have been mentioned as possible successors to Ali Khamenei, the final decision will likely depend on internal power balances within Iran’s political institutions and the broader role played by military and political actors.

Ultimately, the selection of the next Supreme Leader may not only determine the future trajectory of Iran’s political system but could also have significant implications for the wider regional conflict in the Middle East.