U.S. Sanctions on Iran: From Economic Pressure to Dismantling Tehran’s Financial Networks

Reports and files - Foresight

The latest U.S. sanctions on Iran appear to be more than another episode in Washington’s long-running campaign of economic pressure against Tehran. They reveal a deeper shift in the nature of U.S. strategy. Washington is no longer focusing solely on directly sanctioning Iranian institutions; it is increasingly targeting the external financial and commercial networks that have enabled Iran to circumvent sanctions and maintain the financial flows necessary to sustain its economy and military programs.

In its latest move, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Turkey-based investment bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two affiliated companies, accusing the entities of helping transfer Iranian oil revenues through a parallel financial network and convert them into cash and gold. The sanctions placed the targeted institutions on the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s sanctions list, cutting them off from the dollar-based financial system.

The political significance of the move, however, lies less in the size of the targeted institutions than in where Washington chose to strike. Turkey is a NATO member and an important economic partner of the United States. Targeting a Turkish financial institution therefore sends a message that extends beyond the institution itself: dealings with Iran are no longer simply commercial decisions for banks and companies, but decisions that may carry direct costs imposed by Washington.

From Sanctioning Iran to Punishing Those Who Deal with It

The latest measures demonstrate a clear transition from direct economic pressure toward what can be described as expanding the cost of risk.

Washington does not necessarily need to shut down every Iranian institution if it can make foreign banks and companies afraid to deal with them.

This is precisely where secondary sanctions derive their power. A non-U.S. institution that continues to conduct business with Iran may face a difficult choice: preserve its relationship with the Iranian market or maintain access to the U.S. financial system and the dollar.

Sanctions therefore become an instrument not only for punishing Iran, but for reshaping the behavior of third parties.

That is the essence of Washington’s emerging strategy: the objective is not merely to close Iran’s financial channels, but to make rebuilding those channels more costly and risky than leaving them disrupted.

This explains Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s indication that Washington could impose new secondary sanctions on a weekly basis, initially focusing on banks.

Why Target Banks?

The focus on the banking sector is not accidental. Sanctions on oil exports or commercial companies can sometimes be circumvented by changing intermediaries, shipping routes, or front companies. Banks, however, remain critical chokepoints through which most commercial transactions must ultimately pass.

Even when Iran succeeds in selling oil or obtaining goods, it needs channels through which revenues can be transferred, payments settled, imports financed, and funds converted.

The U.S. Treasury has alleged that Golden Global provided correspondent banking services to Iranian financial institutions, facilitating transactions involving accounts controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force and its proxies.

The confrontation is therefore evolving from conventional economic sanctions into an effort to dismantle the financial infrastructure supporting Iranian influence.

Turkey: Testing the Limits of U.S. Pressure

The choice of a Turkish institution carries particular political significance. Turkey is not simply a country through which Iranian money moves; it is a NATO member with deeply interconnected economic and strategic relations with the United States, Russia, and Iran.

Targeting a Turkish bank can therefore be interpreted as a test of how far Washington is prepared to extend its sanctions regime beyond Iran, including against institutions operating in allied or partner countries.

The message is that membership in Western alliances does not automatically provide immunity from U.S. sanctions when Washington concludes that an institution has become part of a network helping Iran evade restrictions.

The deterrent effect could extend well beyond Turkey. Banks in other countries may reconsider their relationships with Iranian institutions not because they share Washington’s political position, but because they fear becoming the next target.

The European Union: Broader Coalition or Broader Rhetoric?

Washington is simultaneously attempting to transform its sanctions policy from a largely unilateral instrument into a broader multilateral effort. Bessent welcomed what he described as the European Union’s participation in “Operation Economic Outcast,” referring to the campaign aimed at financially isolating Iran.

It is important, however, to distinguish between European political support for sanctions and full participation in the U.S. system of secondary sanctions. Available reporting indicates that the European position does not necessarily amount to adopting every U.S. instrument or transforming the European sanctions framework into a replica of Washington’s system.

This distinction is critical because the success of the U.S. strategy depends not only on the strength of American sanctions, but also on Washington’s ability to persuade its allies to absorb their economic and political costs.

The broader the coalition, the harder it becomes for Iran to develop alternative financial channels. Yet the more Washington attempts to impose its sanctions architecture on other countries, the greater the possibility of disagreements among allies over the limits of U.S. economic power.

The Real Objective: Changing Tehran’s Behavior or Exhausting It?

The Trump administration argues that economic pressure is intended to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. This suggests that sanctions are not an end in themselves, but rather an instrument within a broader negotiating strategy.

The more important political question, however, is this: Will economic pressure change the behavior of Iran’s leadership, or will it push Tehran toward greater escalation?

Previous sanctions experiences suggest that economic pressure can weaken a state’s ability to finance its policies, but it does not necessarily guarantee acceptance of the political conditions imposed by Washington.

Indeed, intense pressure can produce the opposite effect if Tehran concludes that backing down would be interpreted as a strategic defeat. In that case, Iran may rely more heavily on its regional and military tools to respond to economic pressure.

The success of a “maximum pressure” strategy should therefore not be measured simply by the amount of money frozen or the number of institutions sanctioned. Its real measure is whether it can alter the calculations of Iranian decision-makers.

When War Turns Economics into a Battlefield

The measures are being introduced in the context of a war that has pushed energy prices higher and increased the vulnerability of global markets, giving the sanctions an importance extending beyond Iran’s economy.

If Washington succeeds in reducing Iran’s ability to export oil and access the resulting revenues, it can weaken one of the state’s principal sources of funding at a time when the costs of war are rising.

The paradox, however, is that pressure on Iranian energy exports could also affect global markets, particularly if Tehran responds by attempting to disrupt oil flows or maritime traffic in the Gulf.

Sanctions therefore become part of a more complicated equation: Washington seeks to reduce Iran’s ability to finance the war while simultaneously trying to prevent economic pressure from triggering a global energy shock.

Banque Misr and the UAE: Expanding the Warning

The action against the Turkish institutions followed an earlier U.S. move involving branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr in the United Arab Emirates over dealings with Iran. Although the measure did not amount to full sanctions against the parent bank, it carries important political significance: Washington is increasingly probing the channels through which Iran accesses the international financial system.

This suggests that the next phase could involve a shift from sanctioning Iranian entities toward mapping and dismantling the entire network used to circumvent sanctions.

If the Treasury continues to impose new measures on a regular basis, banks and companies across the Middle East and Asia could face increasing uncertainty over their dealings with Iran.

Russia: The Limits of Washington’s Ability to Isolate Iran

Russia represents one of the most significant challenges to the U.S. strategy. The Kremlin responded to Bessent’s call for Moscow to distance itself from Tehran by emphasizing that the United States cannot monopolize relations between other countries.

This confrontation highlights the limits of U.S. economic power. Even if Washington retains substantial control over the dollar-based financial system, it cannot necessarily prevent major powers from developing alternative trade and financing channels.

Russia and China maintain strategic and economic relations with Iran, while both have an interest in limiting Washington’s ability to use the global financial system as a geopolitical instrument.

Iranian sanctions could therefore gradually become part of a broader struggle over the future architecture of the international financial system itself.

Could Sanctions Accelerate the Emergence of a More Multipolar Financial System?

This is one of the potential long-term consequences. The more aggressively the United States employs secondary sanctions, the stronger the incentives become for targeted or affected countries to seek alternatives to the dollar and Western financial infrastructure.

Yet the transition toward a multipolar financial system is not easy. The dollar remains central to global trade and finance, while existing alternatives lack the same combination of liquidity, confidence, and global reach.

The more likely short-term outcome is therefore not the collapse of dollar dominance, but an acceleration of efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar in selected strategic transactions.

Iran could become a testing ground for this process, particularly if it succeeds in expanding trade using local currencies, gold, or alternative financial networks.

Washington’s Dilemma: Successful Sanctions Can Become More Dangerous

The central paradox of the U.S. strategy is that its success could itself create new risks. If sanctions succeed in closing a large number of Iran’s financial channels, Tehran may conclude that its economic options are becoming dangerously constrained.

That could push Iran toward more aggressive responses, whether through regional partners or by exerting pressure on trade and energy routes.

This is why sanctions experts have warned that increased economic pressure does not necessarily translate into a change in the outcome of the war, and that continued sanctions without a corresponding political breakthrough could provoke broader Iranian retaliation.

Between Economics and Diplomacy

The latest developments reveal a fundamental paradox in U.S. policy toward Iran: Washington is using economic pressure to achieve a diplomatic outcome, while simultaneously increasing the possibility of escalation that could make diplomacy more difficult.

The sanctions are intended to force Iran to negotiate from a weaker position. Tehran, however, may perceive them as an attempt to force its surrender.

The success of the U.S. strategy will therefore depend on the existence of a credible diplomatic exit. Pressure alone can weaken an opponent, but it cannot produce a settlement unless there is a framework that allows the other side to compromise without appearing to have lost the war.

Conclusion: A Battle over the Financial System as Much as over Iran

The latest sanctions indicate that the confrontation between Washington and Tehran has entered a phase extending beyond traditional restrictions on the Iranian economy. The struggle is increasingly focused on the networks that enable Iran to obtain, transfer, and use funds outside channels that the United States can monitor or disrupt.

The targeting of a Turkish bank and two affiliated entities, combined with pressure on institutions in other countries and efforts to broaden European participation, reveals a strategy aimed at turning business with Iran into an international financial liability.

The decisive question, however, remains political rather than economic: Can Washington transform this pressure into Iranian concessions, or will the sanctions encourage the further development of Iran’s parallel financial economy and deepen fragmentation within the international financial system?

In the first scenario, sanctions become a means of securing a new agreement on more stringent U.S. terms. In the second, economic pressure could become another factor reshaping the international order by encouraging Iran, Russia, China, and others to seek financial and commercial routes less dependent on the United States.

The current confrontation is therefore not simply about Iran’s ability to withstand economic pressure. It is also about who controls the movement of money through the global financial system—and who gets to determine the cost of operating outside its rules.