October and Its Legacy of Losses, Gains, and Shocks

Dr. Dhib Al-Qaraleh

Days, months, and years that mark major historical events—whether victories, defeats, or surprises—play a crucial role in shaping the collective consciousness of nations and peoples. They become psychologically, morally, and strategically intertwined with national plans, goals, and future aspirations, serving either to erase the stigma of humiliation or to reinforce narratives of honor that are invoked during every new phase of tension, escalation, or confrontation.

Historically, the month of October—whose threshold we are about to cross once again—stands as one of the most pivotal in the Arab–Israeli conflict and in the history of Jerusalem. It witnessed Arab victories, as well as Israeli defeats and shocking events, alongside numerous massacres and assassinations committed by Israel. This stands in stark contrast to the month of June, which is etched in Arab memory as the month of defeat, while Israel fashioned from it the myth of the “invincible army.”

As each battle anniversary becomes a symbolic moment through which every side summons its past to shape its future, the victor draws confidence and renewed determination, while the defeated transforms memory into motivation for revenge and erasing shame in subsequent confrontations. This raises the question: will the coming October witness events or decisions that lay the foundations for a new phase in the region’s history—across one or more of the open fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Sana’a, and even Tehran, whose file is once again heating up through the reactivation of sanctions?

To grasp October’s historical significance, it is worth recalling several defining moments. In 1187, Jerusalem was liberated from the Crusaders by Salah al-Din al-Ayyubi after 88 years of occupation. In October 1973, Egypt achieved its historic military breakthrough against Israel. The events of October 7, 2023 also unfolded in this month. October further witnessed the proclamation of the Arab state in Greater Syria by Prince Faisal ibn Hussein in 1918, as well as the successful prisoner exchange that secured the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011.

Yet October has also been marked by tragedy and violence. In 1948, Israel committed massacres in the village of al-Majdal and in Beersheba. In 1952 came the Qibya massacre, followed by the Kafr Qasim massacre in 1956. The Al-Aqsa Mosque massacre occurred in 1990. Israel bombed the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Tunisia in 1985, assassinated Fatah leader Majed Abu Sharar in Rome in 1981, killed numerous residents of Qalqilya in 1956, committed the Beit Rima massacre near Ramallah in 2011, and assassinated Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Fathi Shaqaqi in Malta in 1995. The tripartite aggression against Egypt by Israel, Britain, and France also began in October 1956.

Historical experience—often described as the reservoir of lessons—underscores the necessity of learning from the past while looking toward the future. Collective memory generates mobilizing forces while simultaneously offering warnings. Israel is likely to intensify its efforts to prevent any repeat of historical surprises and may seek in the coming period to engineer a “qualitative victory” that reshapes the boundaries—however immoral or irrational—of what constitutes triumph in the region, even at the cost of thousands of innocent lives, extending the logic it has applied daily in Gaza over the past two years.

Conversely, the anti-Israeli axis—under sustained pressure—may opt for a preemptive move to demonstrate that time remains on its side. A sudden and unexpected “Houthi surprise” cannot be ruled out.

The current landscape, with its multiple active fronts, suggests that memories of past wars have become a driving force behind today’s conflict. They push Israeli decision-makers toward reckless actions aimed at restoring a fading sense of deterrence and a tarnished international reputation. At the same time, they embolden Israel’s adversaries with the belief that collective will remains a powerful weapon yet to be fully deployed.

Within this complex context, all scenarios remain possible. The region may witness broad Israeli escalation under the banner of overwhelming force and unrestrained American support, driven by the belief that such conditions will allow Israel to redraw the contours of a “new Middle East” over the coming years. Meanwhile, what remains of the resistance axis may find itself compelled to fight what could be its final battles across multiple fronts simultaneously.

Ultimately, the decisive factor will lie with those who truly learn from the lessons of history.

Each side’s awareness of its past victories and defeats will largely shape the next phase of conflict—determining whether collective memory becomes a catalyst for wisdom and restraint, or fuel for further bloodshed in a region that has endured a compounded crisis and known little stability for more than eighty years.