The Big Bang!

I am writing this article on Wednesday afternoon, as President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire agreement reached several weeks ago. The agreement had provided for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, beginning with the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.

What happened, however, was that the agreement failed to get off the ground, even after Washington took the first step by lifting the blockade. Tehran began asserting its sovereignty over the strait, claiming that this gave it the authority to determine which vessels could pass, designate the routes they were required to follow, and impose transit fees when it deemed the time appropriate. Iran insisted that this was precisely what the ceasefire agreement—and its 14 provisions—entailed.

Nor did matters stop there. Iran also attempted to draw Oman into the dispute over transit fees on the grounds that it lies on the opposite side of the strait, while denying Muscat the right to authorize ships to use the shipping lane adjacent to its own territory unless permission had first been obtained from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard authorities.

The reality is that the war never truly stopped.

The renewed phase of hostilities began with attacks on a number of vessels that had used alternative shipping routes. Washington responded with strikes that were initially limited but gradually intensified as Tehran launched attacks against the brotherly Arab Gulf states, particularly Kuwait and Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman were not spared missile and drone attacks either.

All these developments reflected the continuation of a broader conflict—one that extends beyond war itself. War represents only one phase in a clash of interests that can escalate to deadly extremes, while war, in turn, consists of “battles” in which individual confrontations form part of a larger strategy aimed at achieving a desired victory.

Trump’s announcement that the agreement had come to an end was accompanied by a demand that Iran return to the negotiating table. Tehran rejected the demand.

The American response came in the form of an announcement that a harsh military campaign would be launched against Iran with the aim of destroying what remained of its weapons and military equipment.

Beyond that came the announcement of an address to the American nation, preceded by an address to Congress, in which Trump would state plainly that the war with Iran had resumed—a war that, in reality, had never truly stopped.

Reaching this stage of the conflict has added another dramatic dimension to the complex web of wars already unfolding across the region: from the continuing fifth Gaza war and its repercussions extending into Lebanon and Syria, to the fourth Gulf war, now with an additional front emerging in Yemen after a temporary period of relative calm.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government had begun extending its legitimate sovereignty over the country’s territory and airspace. This, however, did not sit well with the Houthi militia, which once again moved to grant Iranian aircraft access to Yemeni airports in a blatant violation of Yemen’s sovereignty.

The scope of the war has thus widened once again, extending toward the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In short, the region now stands on the brink of a big bang.