Alawites in “Tomorrow’s Lebanon”: Will the Marginal Role Fade in the Absence of Strategic Thinking?

As the Lebanese strive to outline the contours of a “Third Republic” and seek major settlements that would reshape the balance of power, a fundamental question arises regarding the presence of the Alawite Muslim community within this equation. Current indicators suggest that the already “marginal role” of this community in Lebanon today may disappear altogether in the Lebanon of tomorrow.

This absence would not be merely the result of external exclusion, but also the product of “self-marginalization,” driven by a severe shortage of political competencies and a complete lack of strategic planning capable of moving the community from a reactive posture to proactive national engagement.

Leadership Crisis: Stagnation in an Outdated Paradigm
The Alawite community today suffers from a profound leadership gap. For nearly three decades, both political and religious representation have remained tied to rigid rhetoric that fails to address the complexities of the current moment. Existing institutions—most notably the Alawite Islamic Council—have failed to evolve into inclusive national platforms capable of attracting elite talent. Instead, they remain mired in narrow internal disputes and dependent on outdated figures and circumstances.

This vacuum has created a disconnect between the “established leadership” and an emerging generation equipped with vision, knowledge, and competence, yet lacking the institutional platforms necessary to influence national decision-making. As a result, frustration has seeped into promising minds, while reform-minded individuals have retreated in the face of entrenched self-interest.

Fragmented Elites: The Loss of Human Capital
Paradoxically, the community possesses significant intellectual and economic potential, dispersed between diaspora and الداخل، yet remains disconnected from its own political reality. There is no effective linkage between Alawite competencies abroad and the pressing socio-economic challenges faced in regions such as Tripoli and Akkar. This “dual estrangement” has deprived the community of an effective lobbying capacity and left it without the “think tanks” necessary to formulate a strategic roadmap that transcends narrow local confines and engages with the broader national space.

Tomorrow’s Lebanon: The Language of Interests, Not Slogans
In the emerging Lebanon—where alliances will likely be built around issues such as administrative decentralization, the digital economy, state restructuring, and perhaps even a new constitutional framework—the Alawites risk finding themselves “outside the equation.” The reason is straightforward: the absence of a clear political project. Reliance on awaiting regional settlements amounts to political self-negation; influence is not granted but earned through initiatives and programs.

Without strategic planning, others will make decisions on their behalf, reducing their presence to mere symbolic participation in any future national settlement.

A Roadmap: Where to Begin?
Restoring relevance requires what could be described as a “white revolution” in performance, beginning with practical steps:

1. Institutional Modernization: Transform existing structures into institutions governed by principles of good governance rather than sectarian patronage, and move beyond zero-sum political mentalities.

2. A Transnational Advisory Council: Bringing together diaspora and domestic elites to formulate a unified Alawite-Lebanese vision on major national issues.

3. Youth Empowerment: Moving decisively beyond the old guard—not out of retaliation, but to create space for a new generation fluent in the language of modern economics and governance.

4. Strategic Citizenship: Building cross-sectarian national alliances based on competence and development, grounded in a future-oriented political identity. One such vision posits that the Alawite community in Lebanon should position itself as a neutral, independent Lebanese actor, equidistant from all parties.

The “missing role” is not an inevitable fate, but the natural outcome of turning away from the future. If rational actors and capable individuals within the community fail to seize the initiative and build a strategic mindset attuned to the realities of a new Lebanon, the community risks becoming alien within a nation it has always been an integral part of.

Time is running out, and opportunities in Lebanon do not wait for the hesitant. The greatest fear is that marginalization may ultimately become self-inflicted.

Originally published on An-Nahar Newspaper