It has been a turbulent week in Westminster, raising growing questions about the political survival of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and whether the leadership of the Labour Party possesses any serious strategy to halt the rise of Nigel Farage and his right-wing populist Reform UK party, which now polls at 27 percent compared to Labour’s 17 percent.
The debate intensified following the resignation of Health Secretary Wes Streeting after Labour’s disastrous results in local elections across England and its declining performance in parliamentary contests in Scotland and Wales. Increasingly, many within the party have become convinced that Starmer himself has turned into an electoral liability.
Election analyses deeply alarmed Labour MPs. When translated into a future general election scenario, the numbers suggested that Reform UK could sweep much of northern England’s industrial regions—the historic Labour “Red Wall.” In practical terms, this represents a direct threat to the personal political survival of many Labour MPs themselves. This is what gave Streeting’s resignation such particular significance: its language centered less on political disagreement and more on “duty” and the “national interest,” thereby opening the question of Starmer’s leadership itself.
Streeting did not formally announce a leadership challenge. He does not seek an outright coup. Rather, he appears intent on opening a broader debate within the parliamentary party and Labour’s grassroots over whether Starmer is still capable of leading Labour to victory in the next general election.
The week began with leaks, maneuvers, and internal whispers, before culminating in a dramatic resignation and an exchange of implicit challenges between Streeting and 10 Downing Street.
Starmer wrapped himself in the image of calm confidence, thanking his former minister for his reforms in the health sector and insisting that the government would continue functioning normally. The message was clear: no panic, no collapse.
Yet Starmer’s problem is no longer fundamentally about the economy or day-to-day public demands.
Ironically, the resignation coincided with the publication of improved economic indicators and better health sector figures—developments that under ordinary circumstances would likely have been enough to suppress any internal rebellion.
But Starmer’s crisis has evolved into a crisis of leadership rather than polling numbers.
The greatest irony is that the very qualities that once made him an acceptable leader after the era of Jeremy Corbyn have now become his Achilles’ heel. Labour chose Starmer because he was disciplined, calm, and “safe” after the radical-left phase represented by Corbyn. Those characteristics may have been advantageous in opposition. In government, however, a lack of charisma and political agility becomes a weakness—particularly in the brutal arena of parliamentary combat.
Alongside his clear political program, Tony Blair succeeded in 1997 because he convinced Britain’s middle class that Labour was no longer economically or ideologically frightening. Blair repositioned the party toward the political center, marginalized the hard left, and built a broad electoral coalition.
Starmer, however, inherited a fundamentally different situation.
Labour did not win in 2024 because of a compelling political project, but because voters wanted to remove the Conservative Party government. As a result, Starmer’s legitimacy rests primarily on his perceived “electoral viability”—a legitimacy now shaken by recent elections.
By contrast, Streeting embodies what Starmer lacks: political instinct. Within Westminster, he is known for his wit, accessibility, and ease of communication, particularly with journalists and MPs.
Yet Labour’s crisis extends beyond leadership personalities to the deeper question of what the party itself should become after Starmer.
This is where Andy Burnham enters the picture. The Mayor of Greater Manchester and former Health Secretary under Gordon Brown is regarded by many Labour MPs as more attuned to the mood of traditional northern English voters. Burnham speaks the language of the working class and post-industrial communities more effectively than most of today’s Westminster leadership—a potentially powerful weapon against Farage’s rise.
Streeting belongs to the centrist “Blairite” wing favoring markets and electoral discipline, whereas Burnham comes from the Brownite current slightly to Blair’s left. Another possible contender, former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner, enjoys strong support from trade unions and Labour’s left wing.
Even Blair himself has publicly warned against certain “net zero” policies, calling for a reconsideration of restrictions on oil and gas extraction in the North Sea, as well as stricter immigration policies—issues strongly championed by Reform UK.
Here lies Labour’s central dilemma: most Labour MPs want a centrist leader capable of reassuring markets and defeating Farage electorally, while the party base and unions lean toward more left-wing candidates.
Burnham’s potential return to Parliament through a by-election would therefore constitute a major gamble both for him and for Labour itself. If he loses, he risks destroying his own political future while Labour risks losing Greater Manchester. If he wins, however, it would strengthen the growing belief that the problem lies not with Labour as a party, but with Starmer personally.
Even if Burnham does return to Parliament, he will likely proceed cautiously. In politics, Shakespeare’s wisdom often applies: “He who uses the dagger does not win the crown.”
Moreover, Labour’s leadership replacement mechanism is notoriously slow and complex, involving MPs, trade unions, party members, and the National Executive Committee. Such a process could trigger a prolonged period of political paralysis and internal conflict—something that deeply unnerves financial markets and investors alike.
The longer Starmer remains in office under these conditions, the stronger the sense of uncertainty within the country and the markets—and the greater the benefit to the populist Farage.
Thus, the central question confronting Labour today becomes painfully simple: can anyone stop Farage?
Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat
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