The Arab World Under Crossfire

Dr. Theeb Al-Qaraleh

Today, the Arab world finds itself under crossfire—political, military, and economic—not from a single direction but from multiple axes whose objectives intersect and whose outcomes converge, even when their declared justifications and concealed intentions differ.

Understanding this targeting cannot be reduced to a momentary reading of developments on the ground. Rather, it requires a broader grasp of the strategic environment shaping the regional landscape as it is being redrawn—through iron, fire, destruction, and the power of the dollar—upon the ruins of what was once called the international order.

Since the outbreak of the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran, Jordan and the Gulf states have found themselves in a difficult and exhausting position. Tehran justifies strikes that cross their airspace and sometimes reach their territories as attacks directed at Israel and U.S. bases. Yet missiles and drones do not recognize such precise geographic distinctions. In reality, they prove the opposite: they fall on Arab geography and vital sites, violating sovereignty, causing damage and fear, and forcing costly military and security mobilization—both materially and psychologically.

Political realism suggests that these states cannot afford the luxury of complete neutrality in a war involving a global superpower and two regional powers positioned on either side of them. The situation is further complicated by the fact that any Arab response is interpreted in Tehran as siding against it, while the absence of a response is seen in Washington as hesitation or negligence. Thus, these countries find themselves trapped between choices that are all costly, despite having no stake in this war.

On another front, much of the Arab world continues to face the renewed and persistent Israeli threat, which in recent months has taken on more explicit and less ambiguous forms. What was once whispered in closed circles is now openly declared on platforms, podiums, and television screens—at the highest levels—and reflected in maps circulating within the corridors of the Israeli government.

Talk of a “Greater Israel” is no longer confined to the fringes of the far right. It has become a discourse invoked from within Israel’s centers of decision-making, while policies of killing, starvation, settlement expansion, and mounting restrictions on Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank proceed systematically—aimed at making life unbearable and pushing the largest possible number of Palestinians toward displacement into Jordan and Egypt.

In this context, the prolonged economic pressures placed on several Arab countries—among them Jordan and Egypt—cannot be separated from the broader strategic picture. When a state is burdened by debt, constrained in resources, and struggling with unemployment, it becomes more susceptible to compliance when the moment arrives to impose predetermined plans.

Maintaining these countries in a chronic state of economic weakness is therefore unlikely to be a coincidence or merely a natural outcome of resource limitations. In light of current realities, it appears rather as a calculated policy intended to exhaust political will before presenting the conditions.

The Gulf states—the economic backbone of the Arab world—are themselves subject to similar pressures, albeit in different ways. Persistent efforts appear aimed at draining their financial capabilities and undermining their sources of strength under various pretexts. It is also evident that some actors have not forgotten the use of the oil weapon in 1973. Meanwhile, different methods and policies are being applied in countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Speaking of targeting does not, however, mean embracing the image of helpless victimhood. The Arab world possesses significant elements of resilience—if properly utilized—that are capable of thwarting scenarios of subjugation. Historical milestones such as the Battle of Karameh and the October War remain reminders that Arabs are capable of achieving victory when confrontation becomes inevitable.

Within this equation, the frontline states are not merely targets; they represent the first line of defense for the entire Arab strategic depth. Supporting and strengthening them is therefore a collective Arab responsibility dictated by shared interests before it is demanded by a sense of national duty. This is not a matter of political luxury or wishful thinking, but rather the most intelligent strategic wager in a phase that leaves little room for illusions or misplaced goodwill.

Perhaps the most notable feature of the current moment is the emergence of a new Arab awareness that has begun to reorder its priorities—both before and after the outbreak of the recent war. Arab states increasingly realize that Israel ultimately makes no distinction between a Jordanian, Egyptian, Saudi, Qatari, Algerian, or Sudanese when it comes to its expansionist project or aggressive intentions.

The Arab world is targeted because its countries lie at the heart of a map that others seek to redraw. Yet being targeted does not inevitably mean defeat or submission. History teaches us how nations have endured when they possessed the will, and how peoples have prevailed when they read their moment wisely, united their ranks, and transformed the pressures imposed upon them into a force for challenge, solidarity, and survival.

theeb100@yahoo.com