The Anticipated Agreement

Whether it is called a framework agreement or merely an understanding, and whether it is concluded within days or not, the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States through Pakistani mediation appear closer than ever to producing an agreement between the two sides. This momentum has been reinforced by the arrival of an Iranian delegation in Doha that includes chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the governor of Iran’s central bank to discuss the release of frozen Iranian assets as part of a final arrangement—an indication, according to American sources, that tangible progress has been achieved.

The expected agreement is presumed to commit both sides to ending the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, and—most importantly—securing Iranian concessions regarding its nuclear program. Tehran has reportedly accepted suspending or freezing uranium enrichment, while discussions continue over the future of highly enriched uranium. Washington still insists on taking possession of it, whereas Tehran refuses to hand it over to the United States.

The American Secretary of State confirmed that reaching an agreement within days remains possible. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump maintained his characteristic contradictory rhetoric, stating simultaneously that negotiations were progressing well and that the parties were “on the verge of signing a great agreement with Iran—or returning to the battlefield on a scale greater than ever before.”

Trump continues to repeat daily that he will sign only a “great deal” that fully satisfies American conditions, unlike the agreement reached under Barack Obama. He insists that any agreement must prevent Iran from developing or possessing a nuclear weapon, while pledging to maintain the maritime blockade in full force until a final settlement is achieved.

On the Iranian side, however, the tone remains more cautious. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that it is still too early to confirm the imminent signing of an agreement, despite progress on certain files. He emphasized that negotiations are currently focused primarily on halting the war rather than the nuclear issue itself. In this context, Iran appears to have retreated from its earlier proposal to impose transit fees on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it instead with the notion of “service fees” for ships passing through the waterway—a proposal that still faces American and international rejection.

According to reports published by The Washington Post, the anticipated agreement would involve the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through a phased plan beginning with mine removal, followed by the lifting of the American blockade and the release of approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. In practice, this suggests that Washington has maintained its refusal to fully release all Iranian funds, as Tehran demanded, while agreeing only to partial access.

At the same time, Iran reportedly succeeded in excluding the missile program from negotiations, insisting that it constitutes an essential component of its national defense strategy.

Despite what appeared to be a breach of the expected agreement following recent American strikes on Iranian boats, the ceasefire is still expected to be extended for sixty days, during which the remaining disputes regarding the details of the nuclear file are to be resolved.

Originally published in Al-Masry Al-Youm