War, Once Again

The developments that have swept across the Middle East in recent days have shifted the region once more between the prospect of renewed war and negotiations seeking, within the fragile framework of a violated ceasefire, a way out of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iran has sought to assert control over the strait—not only over the waters adjacent to its own coastline but, effectively, over the Omani side as well—creating a reality in which no passage is possible without the approval of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

What had initially been described as the "Fourth Gulf War" has expanded during this period of diplomatic maneuvering into a broader regional conflict. The confrontation has spread to the southwestern Arabian Peninsula, where Yemen's Houthi movement launched missiles toward Saudi targets. While such attacks are not unprecedented—the Houthis have carried out similar strikes before—the latest escalation has introduced significant new dynamics.

Most notably, Yemen's internationally recognized government responded by striking Houthi positions. More importantly, at the time of writing, the legitimate Yemeni government, together with the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen, had succeeded in preventing the Houthis from closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through determined naval operations. Iran has thus failed to realize one of its long-standing strategic ambitions: exercising simultaneous control over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While Hormuz carries roughly 20 percent of the world's oil exports, Bab el-Mandeb serves as a gateway for approximately 15 percent of global trade.

The conflict has therefore assumed a truly regional character, affecting Arab states that stretch from the Arabian Gulf in the east to the Red Sea in the west, from the Mediterranean in the north to the Indian Ocean in the south. What began with the events of October 7, 2023, along the Gaza-Israel border has evolved into a broader confrontation fueled by Iran and its regional proxies, as well as the radical ideological agenda embodied in what has been variously described as the "Axis of Resistance" or the "Support Front."

The underlying objective of these alliances, however, remains the same: weakening and ultimately undermining the Arab nation-state while obstructing its path toward stability, development, and prosperity. Iraqi militias have now joined the escalation by launching drones and missiles toward Saudi Arabia, even as Iraq itself faces an increasingly dangerous choice between the disarmament of armed factions and the prospect of civil conflict. Although some groups have surrendered their weapons, others continue to resist. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza likewise continue to threaten internal instability and challenge the authority of their respective governments, raising the specter of wider domestic conflict.

Disrupting this dangerous equation began with the determined Saudi-Yemeni response—whether in confronting militia activities in Iraq, securing the southern entrance to the Red Sea, or countering attacks launched by Iran and its regional proxies against the Arabian Peninsula.

Iran's efforts to impose effective control over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait cannot be allowed to succeed. Such a development would jeopardize global trade routes, disrupt international energy markets, and threaten maritime commerce through the SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal, both of which remain vital arteries of the global economy.

This expanding regional confrontation requires a comprehensive regional, Arab, Middle Eastern, and international response aimed at thwarting Iranian ambitions and curbing the influence of the militias that threaten the sovereignty and stability of Arab nation-states in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, while simultaneously extending their reach into Syria.

In practical terms, four priorities stand out.

First, effective mechanisms must be established to prevent Iran and its proxy militias from achieving their objective of dismantling the Arab nation-state.

Second, full political, military, and diplomatic support should be extended to legitimate governments that have clearly affirmed that the monopoly over arms—and the authority to decide questions of war and peace—must rest exclusively with the lawful national state.

Third, the legitimacy claimed by what may be described as an "alliance of destabilization" should be challenged through direct engagement with its political and social constituencies, many of which possess a long and distinguished history of contributing to national development since independence.

Finally, this conflict extends far beyond immediate Arab interests. It represents a direct threat to international peace and security. If that is indeed the case, then the international community—particularly those countries whose interests have already been harmed by the conflict—has both a stake and a responsibility in supporting efforts to contain the crisis and restore regional stability.

Source: Asharq Al-Awsat.